Nigeria production reached a low of 1.47mbpd in September (excluding condensates), the lowest since December 2016 when Niger Delta militants attacked oil infrastructures.
Nigeria grade Bonny light declined by $4.07/barrel to average $40.8/barrel in September from average of $44.90/barrel in August. The Bonny Light-Brent discount widened to $1.20/barrel from $0.05/barrel in August.
Global crude oil market to remain in deficit over the rest of the year, with average of 2.96mbpd in Q4 (lower than 3.08mbpd in Q3).
Irrespective, prices will remain range bound due to slower inventory draws at a rate of 3.0mbpd in Q4 (compared to drawdown of 3.1mbpd in Q3) relative to inventory buildup at a rate of 7.2mbpd in Q2.
Brent crude oil price will average $42/barrel in Q4 (from Q3 average of $42.98/barrel) with 2020 average of $41.19/barrel.
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