Weekly Economic And Financial Commentary – November 16, 2020
OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the month of November showed production by 10 OPEC members in the accord declined by 73kbpd to 21.53mbpd (285kbpd below the stipulated August to December quota) compared to 21.603mbpd in September. On the October production relative to expected cut based on the Phase 2 agreement, the group achieved a compliance rate of 104% (from 101% in September). Adjusting for the expected compensatory cuts neutered the September compliance rate to just 81%. Nigeria’s production remained at a level last seen when Niger Delta militants attacked oil infrastructures in 2016. In its November Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA lowered its forecast for crude oil consumption in Q4 further by 302kbpd to 96.75mbpd, with full year 2020 consumption of 92.91mbpd (below 2019 average of 101.5mbpd). Global production is estimated to increase by 2.20mbpd in November, dominated by increase production among OPEC (+1.47mbpd) and non-OPEC members (+733kbpd).
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